H HiPerformance CultureThe Evidence
Habits 5 min read
Trend Breakdown
The Evidence

Does putting money or stakes on the line make habits stick?

Putting money or anti-charity stakes on the line is a real behavioural economics tool with genuine short-term effects. The evidence supports commitment devices for short-term adherence, but the claim that they build lasting habits runs ahead of what the research actually shows.

Published 19 Jun 2026 · 6 sources
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Trend Science
Breakdown
Evidence-graded series
02What's being claimed

Pre-committing real money or aversive stakes to a future behaviour changes the incentive at the moment of temptation. Proponents argue this is not willpower at all: it is rational incentive alignment. By depositing funds you forfeit if you fail, or pledging to donate to a cause you dislike, you shift the cost-benefit calculation before the moment of weakness arrives.

The commitment device concept spread on three rails simultaneously. Behavioural economists, starting with Thaler and Shefrin's 1981 self-control model and accelerating through high-profile RCTs from Ariely, Karlan, and colleagues, gave it academic credibility 1. Economist Dean Karlan's co-founding of stickK.com in 2007 gave anyone a mechanism to set up a financial forfeit contract in minutes. After 2015, productivity podcasts and platforms like Beeminder amplified the idea to an audience already primed to believe that self-knowledge alone is not enough to change behaviour.

The underlying premise is not unreasonable. People have time-inconsistent preferences: they value future goals highly in the abstract, then discount them when immediate comfort is on offer. A commitment device does not try to change that preference; it changes the short-term payoff structure so that the tempting option is no longer cheap. Ariely and Wertenbroch demonstrated the mechanism cleanly: students who set self-imposed binding deadlines for coursework performed significantly better than those given none, and externally imposed deadlines outperformed self-chosen ones, suggesting people recognise their present bias but systematically under-constrain themselves 2.

Origin
Behavioural economics theory
Thaler and Shefrin's 1981 self-control model formalised the economic case for commitment devices.
→
Vector
StickK.com (2007)
Economist Dean Karlan co-founded stickK.com, bringing financial forfeit contracts to a general audience.
→
Spike
Productivity influencer culture
Beeminder, stickK, and productivity podcasts popularised financial stakes for habit-building after 2015.
"I put £200 on the line payable to a charity I hate if I skip a gym session this month. I have not missed once. Your future self cannot negotiate with present you, but your wallet can."
— Representative of the trend claim as it circulates online
03The evidence verdict
H
HiPerformance Culture The Evidence · Trend Breakdown
Verdict

Commitment devices lift short-term adherence reliably; they do not make habits stick after the contract closes.

Hype Evidence
This trend lands here
Low Moderate High
Moderate confidence 6 sources cited · 1 review article, 1 laboratory study, 1 RCT, 1 systematic review, 1 field experiment, 1 observational study · 2002–2019
✓

What holds up

✓
Self-imposed binding deadlines reliably improve task completion and output quality vs. no interim deadlines, in controlled experimental conditions. 2
Gold
✓
A commitment savings account produced 82% higher savings balances at 12 months vs. control in a randomised trial of ~1,800 rural bank clients. 3
Gold
✓
Commitment-making interventions added a mean 1.5 kg short-term weight loss vs. control across three RCTs, with a 1.7 kg benefit persisting at 12 months. 4
Silver
✓
Financial deposits in online commitment contracts associate with greater weight loss; anti-charity stakes show the strongest effect. 6
Bronze
✕

What doesn't

✕
The claim that stakes 'make habits stick' is not supported: studies measure adherence during the active contract window, not durable behaviour after it closes. 1
Gold
✕
Two-thirds (66%) of smokers who voluntarily adopted a financial commitment contract for cessation forfeited their deposits on failure. 5
Gold
✕
People with limited financial resilience risk real monetary loss if commitment targets are set too high and deposits are forfeited on failure. 53
Safety-critical Silver
04The studies
Scored on Design quality Measurement precision Causal clarity Replication value
Gold Review article · multiple RCTs and field studies
Bryan, Karlan & Nelson Annual Review of Economics · 2010
Reviewed evidence across savings, smoking cessation, health, and task-completion domains. Commitment devices produce real behavioural effects when participants voluntarily adopt them, because demand signals awareness of self-control problems. However, the same sophistication that drives adoption also drives adverse selection: over-optimists choose contracts they cannot keep.
doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124324 Verify ↗
Gold Laboratory + field experiment · 3 studies
Ariely & Wertenbroch Psychological Science · 2002
Students who set self-imposed binding deadlines for coursework performed significantly better than those with no interim deadlines. Externally imposed, evenly spaced deadlines produced the best outcomes, suggesting people recognise their present bias but systematically under-constrain themselves when given free choice over commitment design.
doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00441 Verify ↗
Gold
+82% savings balance at 12 months vs. control group
RCT · n=~1,800 rural bank clients
Ashraf, Karlan & Yin Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2006
Clients offered a commitment savings account with access restricted until a target date or amount had 82% higher savings balances at 12 months vs. control. Take-up rate was 28%, consistent with the theory that only those who recognise their self-control problem adopt commitment products.
doi:10.1162/qjec.2006.121.2.635 Verify ↗
Silver
+1.5 kg additional short-term weight loss vs. control (3 RCTs)
Systematic review · n=409 (3 RCTs with weight data)
Coupe, Peters, Rhodes & Cotterill BMC Public Health · 2019
Commitment interventions added a mean of 1.5 kg short-term weight loss vs. control; a 1.7 kg benefit persisted at 12 months. Publicly made commitments outperformed private ones, and dietary commitments outperformed physical-activity commitments, suggesting domain and social visibility both moderate effectiveness. Heterogeneity across included studies was high.
doi:10.1186/s12889-019-7185-3 Verify ↗
Contested — Heterogeneity across included studies was high, and most trials had small samples; effect size estimates should be treated as provisional.
Gold
66% of commitment contract adopters forfeited savings on failure
Field experiment · smokers in Philippines
John Management Science · 2019
Sixty-six per cent of smokers who voluntarily adopted a financial commitment contract for cessation forfeited deposits averaging 277 pesos. The findings challenge the assumption that adoption of a commitment device predicts success: adverse selection means over-optimists about self-control are also most likely to choose and then fail commitment contracts.
doi:10.1287/mnsc.2018.3236 Verify ↗
Contested — Some researchers argue the high forfeit rate reflects poor contract design (overly ambitious targets) rather than a fundamental flaw in commitment devices as a class of intervention.
Bronze Retrospective observational · n=3,857
Lesser, Thompson & Luft American Journal of Health Promotion · 2016
Analysis of stickK.com weight-loss contracts found that any financial deposit associated with greater weight loss than an unpaid contract. Anti-charity stakes correlated with the largest weight loss. Causal interpretation is limited by self-selection and self-reported outcomes in this retrospective design.
doi:10.1177/0890117116661157 Verify ↗
05So what do you actually do

The evidence supports using commitment devices as time-limited tools for specific, verifiable targets.

Set an achievable stake; calibrate for what you can genuinely afford to lose.

01Pick a specific, verifiable target: gym attendance on Tuesday and Thursday, not 'get fit'.
02Set anti-charity stakes rather than a donation to a favoured cause; the aversive framing produces the strongest compliance effect.
03Choose a stake you cannot dismiss but can genuinely afford to lose, given that forfeit rates in field studies reach 66%.
04Treat the contract as an adherence bridge for 4 to 12 weeks, not a habit-builder; plan what replaces the device when the contract period closes.
05Avoid commitment contracts if you have limited financial resilience; forfeited stakes represent a real financial loss, not a missed target.
06The verdict triad
Claim

Stakes shift the calculus

External financial stakes correct for present bias by making future failure immediately costly. People routinely discount future goals when immediate comfort is available; a pre-committed stake changes the arithmetic at the moment of temptation, not your willpower.

Consequence

Without stakes, goals slip

Without pre-committed stakes, people routinely discount future goals in favour of present comfort, quietly eroding the behaviour they intend to build. Intention alone does not bridge the gap between valuing a future outcome and acting on it today.

Lever

Specific, verifiable, affordable

Use commitment devices for specific, verifiable short-term targets; calibrate the stake to a level you cannot dismiss but can genuinely afford to lose. Plan what replaces the device when the contract period ends, because the evidence does not support persistence after it closes.

08What to do next
What to do next

Want to identify which self-control strategy will actually work for you?

The HPC Habits Assessment maps your behaviour patterns and self-control profile to the intervention most likely to produce lasting change. It takes five minutes and generates a personalised action plan.

Take the assessment
09Share & references
Update log
19 Jun 2026First published. 6 sources reviewed.
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Bibliography · every source, resolvable
01Bryan, G., Karlan, D. & Nelson, S. (2010). Commitment Devices. Annual Review of Economics, 2(1), 671-698. doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124324 Verify ↗Gold
02Ariely, D. & Wertenbroch, K. (2002). Procrastination, Deadlines, and Performance: Self-Control by Precommitment. Psychological Science, 13(3), 219-224. doi:10.1111/1467-9280.00441 Verify ↗Gold
03Ashraf, N., Karlan, D. & Yin, W. (2006). Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence From a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(2), 635-672. doi:10.1162/qjec.2006.121.2.635 Verify ↗Gold
04Coupe, N., Peters, S., Rhodes, S. & Cotterill, S. (2019). The effect of commitment-making on weight loss and behaviour change in adults with obesity/overweight; a systematic review. BMC Public Health, 19(1). doi:10.1186/s12889-019-7185-3 Verify ↗Silver
05John, A. (2020). When Commitment Fails: Evidence from a Field Experiment. Management Science, 66(2), 503-529. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2018.3236 Verify ↗Gold
06Lesser, L.I., Thompson, C.A. & Luft, H.S. (2016). Association Between Monetary Deposits and Weight Loss in Online Commitment Contracts. American Journal of Health Promotion, 32(1), 198-204. doi:10.1177/0890117116661157 Verify ↗Bronze
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