Skip past the protocol player DECISIONS · PROBABILISTIC-THINKING · A 90-DAY PROGRAMME Probabilistic Thinking Protocol A 90-day programme in calibrated reasoning and probability estimation Today My log My progress The science Related The Ascent This interactive protocol player needs JavaScript. The day-by-day steps are readable at Probabilistic Thinking Protocol.
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Why We Keep Throwing Good Resources After Bad: The Sunk Cost Fallacy Examined June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Science Deep Dive Bio-Performance 19 The sunk cost fallacy is not a thinking error you can correct with awareness, it is a neural architecture that treats abandonment as loss and persistence as identity, and overriding it requires restructuring the decision itself. 22 min read Bio-Performance Why We Keep Throwing Good Resources After Bad: The Sunk…
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Why Incompetence Feels Like Competence: The Dunning-Kruger Effect Examined June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Science Deep Dive Bio-Performance 18 The Dunning-Kruger effect is real but smaller and stranger than its pop-science reputation, and the original explanation for why it happens has been empirically refuted. 22 min read Bio-Performance The Dunning-Kruger Effect Examined: Why Incompetence Feels Like Competence The Dunning-Kruger effect is real but smaller and stranger than its pop-science…
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics What Is Choice Overload? Do Too Many Options Really Backfire? — HPC Trend Breakdown June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics This page renders as a standalone Trend Science Breakdown.
Mental Models & Decision Science Game Theory & Strategy Tit-for-Tat: Axelrod’s Definition and the Winning Iterated Strategy June 18, 2026July 23, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Game Theory & Strategy
Mental Models & Decision Science Probabilistic Thinking The Placebo Effect: The Neuroscience of How Belief Physically Changes Biology June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Probabilistic Thinking Science Deep Dive Bio-Performance 20 Expectation does not merely comfort, it activates endogenous opioids, dopamine, and endocannabinoids through specific neural circuits, producing physiological changes equivalent to active pharmaceutical intervention. 22 min read Bio-Performance The Placebo Effect: The Science of How Belief Becomes Biology Expectation does not merely comfort, it activates endogenous opioids, dopamine, and endocannabinoids…
Mental Models & Decision Science Probabilistic Thinking The Overconfidence Effect: Why Experts Are Wrong More Often Than They Think June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Probabilistic Thinking Skip to article On this page 01Masthead 03Opening 04Mechanism 05Evidence 06Stakes 07Protocol 08Verdict 09Bibliography Reading 42% HPC · Science Deep Dive 5 April 2026 · revised 2026-04-05 The Overconfidence Effect: Why Experts Are Wrong More Often Than They Think. The gap between how certain experts feel and how often they are right is not a…