Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Why We Keep Throwing Good Resources After Bad: The Sunk Cost Fallacy Examined June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Science Deep Dive Bio-Performance 19 The sunk cost fallacy is not a thinking error you can correct with awareness, it is a neural architecture that treats abandonment as loss and persistence as identity, and overriding it requires restructuring the decision itself. 22 min read Bio-Performance Why We Keep Throwing Good Resources After Bad: The Sunk…
Mental Models & Decision Science Applied Mental Models First Principles Thinking: The Neuroscience of Reasoning from Ground Truth June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Applied Mental Models Skip to article On this page 01Masthead 03Opening 04Mechanism 05Evidence 06Stakes 07Protocol 08Verdict 09Bibliography Reading 42% HPC · Science Deep Dive 5 April 2026 · revised 2026-04-05 The First Principles Brain: The Neuroscience of Reasoning from Ground Truth. Your brain defaults to analogy, not analysis. The neural circuitry that overrides that default is both identifiable…
Mental Models & Decision Science Probabilistic Thinking The Overconfidence Effect: Why Experts Are Wrong More Often Than They Think June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Probabilistic Thinking Skip to article On this page 01Masthead 03Opening 04Mechanism 05Evidence 06Stakes 07Protocol 08Verdict 09Bibliography Reading 42% HPC · Science Deep Dive 5 April 2026 · revised 2026-04-05 The Overconfidence Effect: Why Experts Are Wrong More Often Than They Think. The gap between how certain experts feel and how often they are right is not a…
Mental Models & Decision Science Probabilistic Thinking The Placebo Effect: The Neuroscience of How Belief Physically Changes Biology June 18, 2026July 19, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Probabilistic Thinking Science Deep Dive Bio-Performance 20 Expectation does not merely comfort, it activates endogenous opioids, dopamine, and endocannabinoids through specific neural circuits, producing physiological changes equivalent to active pharmaceutical intervention. 22 min read Bio-Performance The Placebo Effect: The Science of How Belief Becomes Biology Expectation does not merely comfort, it activates endogenous opioids, dopamine, and endocannabinoids…
Mental Models & Decision Science Probabilistic Thinking Bayes’ Theorem: Definition and How to Update Beliefs in Light of Evidence June 18, 2026July 20, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Probabilistic Thinking
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Bandwagon Effect: Definition and Why Beliefs Spread Through Crowds June 18, 2026July 21, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics
Mental Models & Decision Science Game Theory & Strategy Tit-for-Tat: Axelrod’s Definition and the Winning Iterated Strategy June 18, 2026June 18, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Game Theory & Strategy
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Survivorship Bias: Definition and Why You Only See the Winners June 18, 2026June 18, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Sunk Cost Fallacy: Definition, Examples & Why Past Costs Should Not Drive Future Decisions June 18, 2026July 21, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics
Mental Models & Decision Science Cognitive Biases & Heuristics Status Quo Bias: Definition and the Default-Option Trap June 18, 2026July 22, 2026 Mental Models & Decision Science, Cognitive Biases & Heuristics